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Most firearms sold illegally in the United States begin in the legal market, according to a new assessment of the evidence on how guns reach people prohibited from possessing them.
A new review and synthesis of research by Philip J. Cook of Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy and Rosanna Smart of the RAND Corporation examines how those markets function and how firearm regulations can affect the flow of guns into criminal use.
Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), the study finds that most firearms involved in illegal transactions begin in the legal market before being diverted through channels that can include straw purchasers, traffickers and private owners. The researchers also find little evidence that illegal gun distribution generally operates through large, organized criminal enterprises.
Instead, access often depends on personal connections, geography and local regulations.
“Firearms violence is closely linked to illegal transactions – transactions that evade or avoid legal restrictions on gun acquisition and ownership by youths and convicted criminals. While firearms transactions are less regulated in the United States than other wealthy nations, the existing regulations do have a considerable effect on access to guns by some of those who are likely to misuse them. Ongoing efforts to deregulate firearms commerce or to reduce enforcement efforts create a substantial risk that more people will die of gunfire,” said Cook.
Key Takeaways
- Most guns start in the legal market. The researchers identify three primary sources from which firearms can ultimately reach people prohibited from possessing them: licensed dealers, private gun owners and privately manufactured firearms. Straw purchasers, brokers, traffickers and other intermediaries can then redistribute those firearms.
- Illegal gun markets differ significantly from illegal drug markets. Firearm transactions are relatively infrequent, and buyers cannot necessarily rely on established sellers or locations. Finding a gun can require personal connections and carries uncertainty about the firearm, seller and legal risks involved in the transaction.
- Social networks and geography shape access. Someone prohibited from possessing a firearm who lives in an area with high gun ownership may have friends or relatives willing to sell or loan one. Access can prove more difficult in places where guns are less prevalent. A national survey of state and federal prison inmates found friends, family members and street sources accounted for most firearm acquisitions among inmates who possessed a gun during their offense, while just 8% reported acquiring the firearm from a gun store.
- State regulations can alter trafficking patterns. Crime-gun tracing data show firearms tend to flow from states with less stringent regulations to states with stricter ones. Previous policy changes have shifted those patterns. When Virginia implemented a one-handgun-per-month law, for example, New York and other states saw a sharp decline in crime guns originating in Virginia.
- Privately manufactured firearms have created a new source of illegal guns. The number of privately manufactured firearms, often called “ghost guns,” recovered from crime scenes and submitted for federal tracing increased 15-fold between 2016 and 2023, from 1,758 to 27,490. Growth leveled off after 2022, and these firearms represented about 9% of crime guns traced in 2023. The researchers note that continued advances in 3D printing and milling technology could further change this market.
“Interstate trafficking patterns and the rise of ‘ghost guns’ illustrate ways that some buyers try to circumvent state rules and highlight the importance of federal policy in keeping firearms out of the hands of people prohibited from having them. Recent moves to relax federal regulations merit careful monitoring of their public safety consequences,” said Smart.
What Regulations Can Accomplish
The researchers conclude that firearm regulations can make it more difficult for prohibited individuals to obtain guns, although their effectiveness depends in part on enforcement.
That finding addresses a central question surrounding U.S. gun policy. With an estimated 400 million firearms already in civilian hands, some have argued that the widespread availability of guns makes regulations ineffective.
Cook and Smart point to evidence that guns used in crime are typically acquired within six months of their criminal use, and often much less. That means reducing access among people prohibited from possessing firearms does not necessarily require removing guns from current legal owners. Policies can instead focus on the transactions through which firearms move into illegal possession.
The study also shows why no single policy is likely to address every source. Regulations governing licensed dealers, private transfers, interstate trafficking and privately manufactured firearms each affect different points in the supply chain.
Ultimately, the researchers argue, understanding how those transactions work is essential to designing policies aimed at reducing criminal firearm use.
The open-access study, “Illegal Firearms Markets: Transaction Patterns, Evolving Sources, and Importance in Criminal Misuse,” is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Philip J. Cook is Terry Sanford Professor Emeritus of Public Policy and Professor Emeritus of Economics at Duke University. His research focuses on crime and violence, with particular emphasis on gun violence and its prevention.
Rosanna Smart is an economist at the RAND Corporation, co-director of the Drug Policy Research Center and co-director of the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative. Her research evaluates gun policy, illegal firearm markets, firearm violence, and risky behaviors.